HomeOpinion & AnalysisNew perspectives: New Covid uncertainties in Zim

New perspectives: New Covid uncertainties in Zim

BY IAN SCOONES

The unfolding drama of the pandemic continues.

With a new variant identified in the region (Omicron) thanks to the effective work of South African genomics  monitoring, Zimbabwe has been subjected to international travel restrictions.

However, despite the global concern about the potential spread of what may be a highly transmissible, immune-escaping variant, things on the ground feel very different.

So far at least.

After the sky-high infection rates and substantial deaths of a few months back, rates subsequently declined dramatically again.

Will the new variant upset this? No-one knows of course.

Conversations with our team across our sites suggests that people have been getting back to ‘normal’ life, despite some remaining lockdown regulations.

What does this new normal feel like? Some quotes from across our sites illustrate.

“We are now not afraid, it’s not like the early days. We know how to prevent, treat and manage the disease”.

“We have indigenous remedies at our disposal. We have made so many discoveries, and now know how to fight the pandemic”.

This confidence may yet be shattered by the new variant, but for now a new version of normality seems to have settled in.

While people may wear masks on transport and mask wearing gets enforced during visits to town, the situation in the rural areas is much more lax.

“These masks are far too hot in this season”, someone explained.

Large gatherings have started again.

Political rallies are the most noticeable as electioneering starts up already in advance of the 2023 vote.

“It’s the politicians who are the biggest law-breakers”, someone noted.

Churches, farmers’ fairs and so on are also being held, with few restrictions and little social distancing.

Curfews too, people report, are barely acknowledged especially in the rural areas.

It feels, at least on the surface, pretty normal, with people making judgements about risk not in fear but with knowledge about the trade-offs and consequences.

But of course such knowledge is not certain. All can be upset with a new variant, as it has been before.

And the wider context has changed too through the pandemic as livelihood possibilities have been restructured and attitudes and practices towards health and disease have changed.

People repeatedly mention their discoveries of local treatments  that have given the confidence in the face of disease threats.

“We have done so much research”, someone observed, “we really know the situation now”.

As well as Covid-19, this applies to what people call ‘cattle Covid’ too (January disease) that has struck people’s herds in dramatic fashion, often resulting in greater impacts on livelihoods than coronavirus.

“We have mixed grasses, mutsviri  ash and water, soaking overnight… and it works for cattle”. We are trying mutsviri ash with lemon for humans too.

Along with the many remedies from local herbs to boost immunity (such as ndorani) and for Covid treatment (like zumbani), as well as the range of mixes of garlic, onions, ginger and lemon, people have a battery of treatment meaning that for now they no longer worry about the disease as they once did.

Uptake of vaccines goes hand-in-hand, with supplies now good and queues small as people take up vaccine offers. This is far from universal and to date only 18.3% of the population have received two doses.

But this combination of local systems of containment and disease management with external medical intervention is seen as efficacious, and the way forward for navigating on-going uncertainties.

As experience has increased with Covid, with different waves and different impacts on different groups of people, people’s local epidemiological knowledge  has increased.

The seasonality of the disease is often commented on (“now it’s hot, there’s much less disease, we are not inside”); the dangers of close proximity and crowded places is clear (“even though it’s hot, I wear my mask on the kombi, but not around the town”); and the dangers to those who are already vulnerable is clear (“it’s the diabetes and the BP that’s the killer – we have to eat better and consume our indigenous foods”).

The revival of debates about appropriate diet (millets, not processed maize, less meat and so on) has been part of the local conversation about the disease over time. With this knowledge comes the ability to make choices. As people commented, “in the beginning we had so much conflicting information on WhatsApp, on the internet, from friends, we didn’t know who to believe”.

Now people make judgements made on experience after 18 months of the twists and turns of the pandemic, taking account of local circumstances and not taking anything at face value.

Such is the experience of the pandemic: continuous change, continuous uncertainty. No matter what a new variant throws at Zimbabwe’s rural population in the coming weeks, the pandemic has affected the structural conditions by which people remain healthy or become sick.

Due to repeated lockdowns and the parlous state of the Zimbabwean economy, people must make livelihoods in new ways.

Many businesses have closed, jobs in town are scarce and people must increasingly rely on local provisioning, especially through agriculture. There are also many new opportunities that have emerged, which have been documented in this blog series before.

In urban and peri-urban areas for example, the demand for Covid treatments is met by a proliferation of new gardens, growing key ingredients.

Ginger is now widely grown for example, and no longer imported from Mozambique or the Eastern Highlands.

While transport has returned and farmers can move their crops to market, many have adopted new market networks, spreading risk and going for shorter transport distances, as the predatory police presence  on the roads is still a problem (and a cost).

As we have documented , many have returned to rural homes, seeking out a plot from a relative or a parent, when jobs have dried up in Zimbabwe’s cities or in South Africa.

Agriculture, and especially in the land reform areas where there is more land available, is a vital source of resilience in pandemic context.

Some have taken up new agriculture-based business, switching from a town job to intensive horticultural irrigation for example, or in the case of women vendors in Chikombedzi moving into goat rearing and trade to South Africa on a huge scale.

Time will tell whether this is a more permanent restructuring of the economy, but the shifts are significant and will be important for thinking about post-Covid recovery.

Across the commentaries from our informants in all the sites, there is a great emphasis on autonomy, and how this brings resilience .

People have learned and innovated on their own. They haven’t been reliant on the state or international donors. Indeed, they have not been able to provide – the government and party doesn’t care, the donors are not interested in Africa are frequent refrains.

And the competition between the Chinese, Russians and Americans over vaccines and Covid response is seen from afar with disgust. The emphasis in local commentaries is on local adaptation through experimentation and way of responding that is localised and seemingly effective.

Knowledge is shared through local networks, through WhatsApp, but is sifted now more carefully as options are considered. As people confronted the information on a new variant this weekend, according to informants there was a mix of scepticism and stoicism, but equally a sense that people were on their own as before but now with the capacity to innovate and respond.

If there is one thing that this pandemic has taught all of us it is that uncertainty is everywhere and we don’t know the future.

*This blog was written by Ian Scoones and originally appeared on Zimbabweland.

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